SpaceX’s public debut has instantly reshaped market conversations, landing a $2.1 trillion valuation that makes it the sixth-largest U.S.-listed company—and immediately fueling speculation about a tie-up with Tesla. The stock priced at $135 per share and closed its first day at $160.95, a gain of nearly 19%.
Against this backdrop, Elon Musk projected that SpaceX could generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, a target that dwarfs even the most optimistic analyst forecasts. Morgan Stanley has modeled roughly $330 billion by 2030, while Goldman Sachs sees about $470 billion. SpaceX reported $18.67 billion in revenue for 2025, meaning Musk’s aim requires a more than 50-fold jump in five years.
The growth engine would be Starlink, the satellite broadband arm already becoming SpaceX’s largest commercial segment. To hit the $1 trillion mark, Starlink would need to evolve into a global data-infrastructure platform covering direct-to-device, defense, aviation, and AI connectivity. Reusable launch services—and the eventual scaling of Starship—are the other pillar, promising a steep reduction in orbital payload costs.
Immediately after the IPO, investor Anthony Pompliano publicly called on Musk to merge Tesla and SpaceX, arguing shareholders want a single vehicle to bet on Musk’s empire. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives put the odds of a deal at around 80%, while SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell told CNBC a merger could “make Musk’s life easier.” The SpaceX S-1 filing itself warns of possible equity issuance for future transactions, which many read as a signal that a large deal may already be under consideration.
Whether a Tesla-SpaceX combination materializes or not, the IPO and the $1 trillion revenue forecast have turned SpaceX into a litmus test for how frontier infrastructure companies are valued—and whether today’s premium multiples can be justified by tomorrow’s execution.
