Solana has staged a strong recovery, climbing over 20% from its June low near $60 to test a crucial resistance cluster between $70 and $75. The rebound has placed the token at a technical inflection point that could determine whether it reclaims its multi-month consolidation range or faces another leg down.
The rally followed reports of a framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing energy supply concerns and pushing oil prices lower. This macro catalyst boosted risk assets broadly, with Bitcoin and Ethereum also posting gains. Solana’s bounce was further reinforced by bullish derivatives activity — CoinGlass data showed open interest climbing alongside price, and a cascade of short liquidations helped accelerate the move from the low-$60s toward current levels.
The daily chart reveals that Solana spent nearly four months inside a horizontal channel bounded by support near $75.7 and resistance around $98.3. The structure broke down in early June, sending SOL to $60. Now the token is retesting that former support-turned-resistance zone. A successful reclaim would invalidate the breakdown and reopen a path toward $83.5, $90, and eventually the channel top near $98.3.
On the 4-hour timeframe, SOL has already broken a descending trendline and cleared several Fibonacci retracement levels from the June decline. Immediate resistance sits at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $74.6, with additional hurdles at $78 and the prior swing high of $83.5. Momentum indicators have turned favorable: the daily RSI moved back above 50, and the MACD is curling higher after a prolonged bearish phase.
Separate analyses add weight to the bullish scenario. More Crypto Online noted that SOL reached its projected 100% Elliott Wave extension target near $70.78, converging with multiple Fibonacci levels between $69.44 and $72.58 to form a dense resistance zone. A breakout above this cluster could indicate the corrective rally is not yet over. Satoshi Flipper highlighted a breakout from a long-term falling wedge on the daily chart, suggesting a larger trend reversal could be underway with a speculative long-term target near $250 — a level last seen during Solana’s strongest expansion periods.
However, not all analysts are convinced. Crypto Coral cautioned that Solana recently broke down from a bearish flag and is now retesting key resistance near the EMA. A rejection could trigger another leg lower before any sustainable reversal takes hold. If SOL fails to clear $75, downside support is expected near $71.8 (50% Fibonacci), $69.1 (61.8% Fibonacci), and potentially the June low around $60. Macro risks also linger; any setback in U.S.-Iran talks or a rebound in oil prices could dampen demand for risk assets and pressure cryptocurrencies.
Adding to the fundamental backdrop, Solana Company recently rejected a non-binding acquisition proposal from Forward Industries, which had valued the firm at a premium. The move underscores growing corporate interest in SOL-focused treasury strategies, but the immediate market focus remains firmly on the price chart.
