Major crypto market maker Wintermute has issued a cautionary note in its latest weekly report, advising investors that it is premature to declare a market bottom for digital assets. While Bitcoin recently surged above $66,000 on hopes of a US-Iran agreement and easing inflation fears, Wintermute argues the rally reflects improving sentiment toward risk assets broadly rather than a genuine reversal in crypto fundamentals.
The firm highlighted that several key metrics remain weak. Stablecoin net inflows are stagnant, indicating a lack of fresh capital entering the market. Spot ETF fund flows have not shown sustained momentum, and large-scale digital asset treasury purchases by major firms have failed to expand meaningfully. Without these improvements, any price recovery should be viewed with skepticism.
In its analysis, Wintermute did not rule out further downside, specifically warning that Bitcoin could still fall to the $50,000 range. The report stressed that liquidity is expected to be thin over the summer, making the market vulnerable to sharp moves. “Oil is falling, inflation fears are easing, but there is no sign of a bullish structural shift in the cryptocurrency market,” the analysts wrote, emphasizing that investors should focus on fund flows rather than headlines.
The market maker’s stance serves as a reality check, urging market participants to monitor on-chain metrics and institutional flows closely before calling a bottom. The overarching message: the current rally is likely a bear market bounce unless concrete improvements in capital inflows and treasury activity emerge.
