SoFi Technologies (SOFI) shares remain under severe pressure in 2026, but CEO Anthony Noto is signaling confidence by repeatedly purchasing the stock in the open market. On Tuesday, Noto acquired another 13,888 shares for approximately $251,000, marking his fifth insider buy of the year. This latest purchase lifts his total direct holdings to nearly 11.96 million shares, adding to a pattern of buying during significant pullbacks.
The stock rose 3.4% on the session, touching an intraday high of $18.08 on volume nearly 60% above its daily average. Still, SOFI is down over 32% year-to-date and trades well below its 200-day moving average of $20.74, though it has recently recovered above the 50-day moving average of $16.83. The company's market capitalization has shrunk from nearly $40 billion in November 2025 to around $22.7 billion currently.
Muddy Waters Report and Dilution Concerns
Investor sentiment turned sharply negative after a damning report by short-seller Muddy Waters. The research firm alleged SoFi had $312 million in unrecorded debt, used aggressive accounting to inflate revenue metrics, and maintained understated credit losses. It also highlighted substantial equity dilution—outstanding shares have ballooned from 805 million in 2021 to 1.28 billion. Earlier in 2026, SoFi raised $1.5 billion through an equity offering, further weighing on the stock.
Crypto Platform Relaunch and Stablecoin Entry
Despite the headwinds, SoFi continues to broaden its financial ecosystem. The company recently relaunched its cryptocurrency trading platform, giving users access to over 25 digital assets for buying, selling, and holding. More notably, SoFi entered the stablecoin market with the launch of SoFiUSD, a U.S. dollar-backed token designed to comply with the GENIUS Act. This move pits SoFi against established players like USDT and USDC, although newer entrants such as PYUSD and RLUSD have struggled to capture significant market share.
On the operational side, the business remains robust. First-quarter 2026 revenue beat expectations at $1.09 billion, a 42.6% year-over-year increase, while adjusted EBITDA surged 62% to a record $340 million. Member growth remained strong, climbing 35% to 14.7 million. Full-year guidance calls for earnings per share of $0.60, slightly above the analyst consensus of $0.58. Wall Street estimates revenue will reach $4.6 billion in 2026 and $5.7 billion in 2027.
Analyst views are mixed, with a consensus “Hold” rating and an average price target between $20.69 and $22.56. Mizuho stands out as the most bullish with a $29 target, while Wells Fargo and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods maintain more cautious stances.
Technical indicators offer a glimmer of hope. SOFI has formed a double-bottom pattern around $14.97 and reversed from key Murry Math Lines support, flipping the 50-day exponential moving average. A breakout above the $20 neckline could signal a move toward $25, though the downtrend remains intact until that level is reclaimed.
