Bitcoin and Ethereum traders are increasingly pessimistic following the Federal Reserve’s June 18 decision, where newly installed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a hawkish shift. Interest rates held steady, but market expectations swung dramatically: Polymarket odds surged to 80% that there will be no rate cuts in 2026, and CME FedWatch data pointed to a potential rate hike by year-end. This pivot slammed risk assets, with BTC falling 5% to $62,499 and ETH dropping 5% to $1,682 in the 24 hours after the FOMC meeting.
On the prediction platform Myriad, bearish bets soared. The “Pump or Dump” market for Bitcoin saw odds of a decline to $55,000 jump more than 10 percentage points, now favoring a dump at nearly 72% before any bounce to $84,000. Ethereum’s outlook is even grimmer: traders give an 83% chance that ETH hits $1,500 before it can rally to $3,000. These odds have jumped 4% in a day and over 23% in the past month.
Ethereum has been under relentless pressure, having lost over 55% from its August 2025 peak near $4,950. A brief crash to $1,507 in early June, triggered by U.S.-Iran tensions, was followed by a relief bounce to around $1,780. On-chain data reveals a stark divergence: wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH have accumulated around 510,000 tokens since June 5, suggesting whale conviction, while retail activity remains muted. Exchange supply has hit a record low, historically a signal of reduced sell-side pressure.
Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $22.5 million in net inflows after four days of outflows, though the broader trend shows only sporadic demand. May 2026 saw over $1.5 billion in total ETH ETF inflows, led by BlackRock and Fidelity, but June has been choppy. Standard Chartered maintains a year-end price target of $7,500 for ETH, citing regulatory clarity and institutional accumulation of 3.8% of circulating supply. Liquidation heatmaps show dense short clusters between $1,840 and $1,900, which could fuel a short squeeze toward the key $2,000 resistance.
The macro picture remains dominant. A dovish turn from the Fed could quickly reverse sentiment, but for now, Bitcoin and Ethereum appear trapped in a bearish grip shaped by monetary policy rather than crypto-specific fundamentals. The $1,700–$1,750 zone is critical support for ETH, while BTC’s “high-value entry window” identified by some analysts contrasts sharply with the prevailing market mood.
