Gold and silver staged a sharp recovery on Thursday after a brutal sell-off, powered by a retreat in oil prices and a broader easing of inflation fears following the US–Iran interim agreement. Spot gold rallied more than 1%, reclaiming the psychologically important $4,300 level, while silver jumped to near $69.15 an ounce. However, the rebound carries a critical caveat: the Federal Reserve’s latest projections have revived the risk of higher US interest rates later this year, limiting the upside for non-yielding assets.
The initial spark came from the energy complex. The memorandum between Washington and Tehran raised hopes that crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz could normalize, sending oil lower. Cheaper energy reduces the risk of persistent inflation and, by extension, the likelihood of aggressive monetary tightening—a dynamic that directly benefits precious metals. “It’s a bit of short position unwinding given yesterday’s steep fall,” said Kelvin Wong of OANDA, noting that the Middle East news had also helped by pushing oil down. Silver, which draws both monetary and industrial demand, rose 1.8% while platinum and palladium also posted solid gains.
Despite the bounce, caution prevails. The Fed held rates steady but its updated dot plot signaled that another hike could still materialize before the year ends. This hawkish tilt kept a lid on enthusiasm, leaving both gold and silver in corrective territory. Technical charts painted a similar picture: gold has moved back above $4,300 but faces resistance near $4,335–$4,360, while silver remains below its 100‑day simple moving average with the relative strength index under the midline. Silver’s immediate barrier is $70.00; a break below the June 17 low of $66.81 would open a path toward the lower Bollinger band around $63.15.
Longer term, silver retains a structural floor. The Silver Institute projects the market will stay in deficit for a sixth consecutive year, supported by firm investment demand even as high prices dampen industrial uptake. For now, the metal’s rally needs confirmation from both a chart breakout and a calmer rates backdrop. The broader precious-metals recovery thus reflects positioning rather than a fundamental shift, leaving markets sensitive to the next Fed communication.
