Space technology stocks are showing signs of cooling after a blistering IPO season, with both Rocket Lab (RKLB) and SpaceX under selling pressure this week despite strong underlying business performance.
Rocket Lab’s record numbers: The company posted all-time high quarterly revenue of $200.35 million in Q1 2026, a 63.4% YoY surge that beat analyst estimates of $189.65 million. Gross margins also hit a record 38.2%, and the backlog grew to $2.2 billion. Management guided for another record quarter in Q2. Rocket Lab is broadening its revenue base with defense contracts, including a $515 million deal with the Space Development Agency and a $30 million hypersonic test launch contract with Anduril. The company’s Electron rocket remains the most frequently launched small orbital rocket.
Nasdaq-100 catalyst: Rocket Lab is set to join the Nasdaq-100 index on June 22, a move that typically triggers forced buying from passive funds. Institutional ownership already stands at 71.78%, with Capital Impact Advisors raising its stake by 47.5% in Q4. However, the stock has fallen nearly 30% from its late-May peak around $151, opening Thursday at $107.98. Insider selling has also weighed: insiders sold $66.9 million worth of stock over the past 90 days. Wall Street maintains an average price target of $102.76 with a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating. Valuation concerns persist—RKLB trades at a forward P/S of approximately 68x, which is more than 3,500% above the sector median, and the much-anticipated Neutron medium-lift rocket has been delayed to Q4 2026.
SpaceX IPO afterglow fades: SpaceX shares lost 3.57% on Thursday after a 5% drop on Wednesday, giving back some of the explosive gains from its initial public offering. The stock remains roughly 37% above its $135 per share IPO price, but the low-float rally has lost momentum. Only about 5% of the company’s 13 billion shares are publicly tradable, causing exaggerated price swings. The first major lock-up expiration will occur after Q2 earnings, at which point 20%–30% of locked shares could become eligible for sale. Options trading added to the volatility: on just the third day of options availability, volume hit 1.26 million contracts, with same-day contracts dominating. SpaceX briefly surpassed Amazon in market cap earlier in the week, peaking at over $2.6 trillion, but ended Thursday at $2.44 trillion versus Amazon’s $2.62 trillion.
Governance and future targets: SpaceX added seasoned investor Roelof Botha as an independent director, expanding the board to eight members. Elon Musk remains firmly in control with over 82% voting rights. On Sunday, Musk posted on X that SpaceX “might be able to reach approximately” $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, a long-term target that stoked initial excitement but did not prevent the two-day slide.
