Republican Representative Bryan Steil introduced legislation in the House of Representatives on June 18, 2026, aimed at prohibiting members of Congress and their immediate families from participating in prediction markets that involve political outcomes, government action, or public policy. The bill, titled the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act, is designed to prevent elected officials from profiting off insider knowledge and restore public trust. “The American people deserve to know their Member of Congress is not profiting off insider information,” Steil stated. “Lawmakers should be writing policy, not wagering on its outcome.”
The proposal comes as platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have grown rapidly, allowing users to trade on election results, legislative timings, and geopolitical events. Critics warn that lawmakers’ access to nonpublic information—such as committee decisions or enforcement priorities—creates a direct conflict of interest when they can place bets on those same outcomes. A recent case involving an Army soldier who used confidential intelligence to earn over $400,000 on a Polymarket bet heightened concerns.
Under the bill, violations would incur a penalty of $2,000 or 10% of the transaction value, whichever is greater, plus any net gain. Fines cannot be paid with official office funds or campaign donations. Members who resign without paying could face civil enforcement by the Department of Justice. The legislation follows Steil’s earlier Stop Insider Trading Act and reflects growing bipartisan scrutiny of lawmakers’ financial activities, including stock trading returns by former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Representative Warren Davidson’s 78.8% gain in 2025.
The bill does not ban prediction markets entirely but targets a narrow risk: officials using privileged information for personal gain. While platforms have voluntary safeguards, congressional action signals a push for statutory limits. This development adds to a broader debate over event-based trading, regulatory oversight, and the integrity of markets that increasingly intersect with politics and crypto infrastructure.
