Bitcoin has dropped roughly $25,000 since the start of the year, with renewed geopolitical instability accelerating the decline. On June 19, BTC fell below $63,000 after Israel expanded its military control zone in southern Lebanon, challenging the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement. The sell-off erased gains from a brief recovery attempt that had taken the price to an intraday high of $65,944, before it slumped to around $62,500.
The broader crypto market felt the shockwave, with Ethereum losing the $1,700 level and testing support near $1,580. Data from CoinGlass shows total liquidations exceeded $1 billion, overwhelmingly hitting over-leveraged long positions. Smaller 24-hour tallies remained near $560 million, underlining the severity of the deleveraging event.
Analyst Ted Pillows intensified the bearish outlook, warning that “the BTC bottom isn’t in yet.” In a widely shared post on X, he forecasted a potential lower high around $74,000 — a pivotal level since early 2024 — before a final capitulation dump. His view aligns with on-chain metrics: cumulative leveraged long positions worth over $4 billion are clustered near the $59,000 yearly low. A break into that zone could trigger forced closures and accelerate selling, with the next major liquidity pool sitting at $68,000 (over $4.75 billion).
While Bitcoin’s 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages continue to act as resistance, the RSI is nearing oversold territory — historically a precursor to sharp relief bounces. Trader LP suggested a bottom could form in late June, cautioning against extreme bearishness.
Amid the turmoil, exchange inflows from mid-sized holders hit their lowest since April 4, according to CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha. On June 19, Binance received roughly 3,500 BTC, Coinbase nearly 3,000 BTC, and Coinbase Prime about 1,700 BTC. The decline in deposits signals reduced readiness to sell at current levels, offering a faint silver lining.
