The XRP price has endured a tough June, sliding from $1.30 at the start of the month to around $1.10 by June 23, a drop of roughly 4% in the last 24 hours alone. The broader crypto market decline, led by Bitcoin and Ethereum, has dragged altcoins lower, but beneath the surface, XRP is setting up what analysts believe could be a final capitulation before a powerful bullish breakout.
Technical analysis from a prominent chartist highlights a potential Elliott Wave structure that points to one more leg down to the $0.87 level. The setup relies on XRP respecting the $1.22 resistance — a classic 0.618 Fibonacci retracement target for wave 2. If the token shows exhaustion there, the full five-wave decline remains intact, with the final low projected for late June or early July. A break above $1.30 invalidates the specific mapped plan but does not truly cancel the $0.87 target unless XRP climbs past $1.65. This timing mirrors last year’s pattern, where a similar dip preceded an all-time high in mid-July.
On-chain data reveals heavy whale accumulation in the $1.05–$1.10 zone. Large wallets have consistently absorbed selling pressure each time XRP tested that range, creating a strong support floor. Momentum indicators, however, still flash caution: the daily RSI has fallen to 29.6, deep into oversold territory, while the stochastic oscillator has also entered oversold readings near 5 and 12. Crucially, the weekly RSI is approaching 30, a level not seen in over a decade. Historically, such extreme oversold conditions on the weekly chart have triggered robust rebounds.
Fundamental catalysts are adding to the bullish case. Ripple received a preliminary Green Light Letter from Luxembourg’s financial regulator as part of the MiCA licensing process. If finalized, the company would gain the right to offer regulated crypto payment services across all 30 European Economic Area countries under a single framework, significantly strengthening its institutional adoption narrative. At the same time, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley disclosed that the firm’s XRP investment products have pulled in more than $200 million in inflows this year, with a record $131.94 million in May alone — exceeding combined Bitcoin and Ethereum product flows during that month.
Claude AI’s analysis maps out three scenarios before the end of June. The most probable base case sees XRP recovering from oversold levels to end the month between $1.20 and $1.28, driven by gradual spot demand and whale support. A bullish scenario, triggered by a short squeeze, could push the price to $1.38–$1.42 if MiCA progress and ETF demand overcome macro headwinds. The bearish scenario, tied to broader market selloffs or hawkish Fed moves, would break the $1.09 support and send XRP toward $0.95–$1.00. With key catalysts aligning, traders are watching closely whether institutional firepower can override the lingering market weakness.
