BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has forecast that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach a local bottom near the $40,000 level within the next six months, even as he maintains a bullish long-term outlook for the cryptocurrency. In a series of interviews, Hayes outlined a hedging strategy he has implemented to navigate potential short-term downside while keeping his core portfolio heavily weighted toward Bitcoin.
Hayes stated that while his long-term investment thesis remains unchanged, he has established a hedge position using a put spread—an options strategy that limits potential losses by buying and selling put options at different strike prices. This approach allows him to protect against adverse price movements without liquidating his core holdings. He indicated that the hedge is designed to cover a potential decline to the $40,000 area, which would represent a roughly 35% drop from current prices. "If I’m wrong it doesn’t matter… I’m long, I’m still happy either way," Hayes said.
Despite the short-term bearish prediction, Hayes reiterated his year-end price target for Bitcoin of $200,000 to $250,000. He believes that the artificial intelligence trade has absorbed marginal speculative capital this cycle, temporarily limiting crypto upside. Hayes pointed to aggressive data center spending and circular revenue deals in AI as a potential credit bubble even larger than the subprime crisis, which could eventually unwind and force governments to print money on a massive scale. "The Fed can’t print Moore’s law," he remarked, suggesting that such a fallout could drive Bitcoin to $1 million.
Hayes also offered a bullish take on Ethereum (ETH), calling it one of the best large-cap setups right now. He said he would choose Ether over Bitcoin on a pure chart basis since it has not yet reclaimed its prior all-time high. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy’s recent purchase of 520 BTC helped Bitcoin briefly reclaim $65,000, but a hawkish Federal Reserve keeping rates between 3.50% and 3.75% and rising rate-hike odds continue to exert pressure on the market.
