Chinese Bitcoin miner Jiang Zhuoer has forecast that BTC will hit its bear-market floor between $42,000 and $44,000, with the most likely window from October to December 2026. His outlook is built around Strategy’s market net asset value (mNAV) metric, which recently dipped to 0.72 — close to the 0.7 level recorded in May 2022, when the previous cycle’s mNAV low preceded Bitcoin’s ultimate price bottom by about six months.
Jiang noted that in 2022, Strategy’s mNAV bottomed when BTC traded near $31,017, and the price later fell to $15,476 in November 2022. Applying the same lag to the current setup, his model points to a BTC low around October 31, 2026, near $44,016. He admitted the model’s timing is more reliable than its exact price target, which is why he widened the range to $42,000–$44,000.
The miner disclosed he has already exited spot positions and opened short-term bearish trades, adding that he intends to accumulate spot Bitcoin again near the projected low. The forecast comes as Bitcoin faced fresh selling pressure in June, falling below $60,000 and triggering over $850 million in liquidations.
