A new Reuters poll of over 100 economists reveals a broad consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark interest rate within the current 3.50% to 3.75% range for the remainder of 2025. The survey suggests that persistent inflationary pressures and a resilient labor market are giving policymakers little reason to adjust rates in either direction. The overwhelming majority projected no change at upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, marking a shift from earlier expectations of mid-year cuts.
Key factors underpinning the prolonged rate hold include sticky core inflation—especially in services—elevated wage growth, and global economic uncertainties. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's data-dependent stance reinforces the cautious approach. The poll indicates that the first rate cut is not widely expected until the first quarter of 2026, contingent on clearer disinflation.
Separately, analysts at Commerzbank stated that further rate hikes are unlikely, citing cooling core inflation metrics, moderating consumer spending, and a softening labor market. Their analysis points to the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index trending closer to the Fed's 2% target, reducing the urgency for additional tightening. This aligns with market pricing, which already shows a high probability of steady rates.
For crypto markets, a stable rate environment removes one layer of macroeconomic uncertainty. Historically, pauses in rate hikes have been supportive for risk assets, though the direct impact may be muted given that such expectations are largely priced in. Investors will now focus on upcoming inflation data and labor reports for any signals of a pivot.
