Bitcoin has slipped below its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), a technical event that has historically coincided with long-term price bottoms and lucrative accumulation periods for investors. Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez flagged the development on X, noting that the current price level may offer a compelling opportunity for dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategies.
The 200-week SMA is a closely watched metric that calculates Bitcoin's average price over nearly four years. Data shows BTC has traded below this line only a handful of times—during the 2014–2015 bear market, the 2018–2019 crypto winter, and briefly in the March 2020 COVID crash. In each instance, accumulating at or below the 200-week SMA led to exponential returns for patient holders throughout the following cycles.
Martinez emphasized, “When BTC is below the 200-week moving average, it has historically been a prime accumulation zone. Dollar-cost averaging during these periods has proven to be a prudent approach for long-term holders.” As of the latest market check, Bitcoin was consolidating near $60,326.78, hovering just beneath the critical SMA boundary.
However, analysts caution that this is not a guaranteed bottom. Bitcoin could remain below this level for weeks or even months, as seen in prior cycles. Market structure remains fragile, and factors such as liquidity conditions, derivatives positioning, and macroeconomic volatility can override even historically reliable signals. The setup should be viewed as a watchpoint rather than a definitive price target.
For investors, the event underscores Bitcoin's cyclical nature and the value of disciplined approaches like DCA during periods of deep undervaluation. Traders are advised to verify the 200-week SMA line on platforms like TradingView and monitor daily close structure, volume, and liquidity flows before drawing firm conclusions.
