With June closing in negative territory and Bitcoin down roughly 18% for the month, attention is shifting to the critical factors that could determine a turnaround in July. On-chain data reveals a prolonged weakness in spot demand, while US-based spot ETFs are registering their heaviest outflows in months.
Demand has remained in negative territory for 208 consecutive days, according to analyst Ali Martinez. The 'apparent demand' metric, which compares new BTC creation to movement of existing supply, recently plunged to a new low of -273,000 BTC — its worst level since the massive liquidation event of early October. “This metric remained in negative territory for so long means a significant amount of old supply is entering circulation faster than the spot market can absorb it,” Martinez explained. The Coinbase Premium, a gauge of US institutional appetite, has also been deep in the red since mid-May, confirming that American investors are not stepping in to absorb the selling pressure.
Compounding the issue, spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their largest single-day outflow of June at $696.3 million on Thursday, pushing monthly redemptions to $3.61 billion and year-to-date net outflows to $4.6 billion. Total net assets in these products have fallen below $73 billion — a 57% drop from the record $169.5 billion seen in October 2025. Approximately 63,500 BTC exited the ETFs over the past 30 days, and data from SoSoValue shows the outflows have been consistent, with little respite.
Lacie Zhang, Research Analyst at Bitget Wallet, noted that ETF flows need to stabilize after the massive $11 billion options expiry on June 26, warning that “if redemptions resume and post-expiry positioning remains defensive, the market may stay choppy around current levels.” She emphasized that Bitcoin’s July direction will likely be shaped by how flows, leverage, and on-chain accumulation behave in the 72 hours after expiry settles.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin with 844,000 BTC at an average cost of ~$75,600, is sitting on over $13 billion in unrealized losses. Its buying pace slowed sharply in June, adding only ~3,600 BTC compared to 50,000 in April. The company’s perpetual preferred stock STRC is under pressure, trading roughly 27% below par value ahead of the June 30 dividend reset. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse criticized the model, calling it financial engineering rather than long-term value creation.
Despite the gloom, some analysts see a potential long-term opportunity. The 200-week simple moving average is being tested, a zone that historically has marked accumulation points. “Bitcoin rarely trades below its 200-week SMA. When it does, history shows those moments have consistently been exceptional long-term accumulation opportunities,” noted chart analyst alicharts. Whether July brings a relief rally or continued consolidation now depends on a stabilization of ETF flows and a revival in on-chain demand.
