Gold briefly traded below the psychologically important $4,000 per ounce level for the first time in eight months, triggering widespread declarations that the bull market is over. On June 24, spot gold dropped to an intraday low of approximately $3,973.79, breaking below $4,000 for the first time since November 2025. The decline from the January record high near $5,595 now exceeds 28%, approaching the 30% correction that some models anticipated.
Economic analyst Martin A. Armstrong, known for his computer-driven cycle models, described the move as a long-expected washout. He emphasized that markets move in cycles, not straight lines, and that the panic selling by late buyers is occurring precisely where his models indicated a correction would unfold. Armstrong pointed out that the selling climax may soon be exhausted.
The immediate pressure on gold came from a repricing of interest-rate expectations following hawkish Fed communications, which lifted the dollar and bond yields, reducing the appeal of non-yielding gold. Despite this, structural support remains: China’s central bank continued adding to its reserves in May, marking 19 consecutive months of purchases. Analysts also note that eventual softening of bond yields and energy prices could relieve pressure on the Fed and support gold later.
From a technical standpoint, the 200-day moving average at $4,484 is a distant hurdle, with gold still trading more than $400 below it. The RSI on the 4-hour chart has recovered to neutral territory near 47, but no oversold signal has emerged. Immediate support holds at $4,000, and a break lower could push prices toward $3,800. Resistance stands at $4,150, then $4,300.
Short-term, gold may consolidate between $4,000 and $4,300. If the Fed signals a pause or rate cuts later in the year, a rally toward $4,800–$5,000 becomes possible. Armstrong’s model points to a maximum correction target near $3,915, which could mark the ultimate low before a resumption of the bull trend.
