U.S. stock futures pushed higher Monday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to halt military exchanges near the Strait of Hormuz, offering a temporary reprieve for risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.2%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.8%, and Dow futures added 0.4%, as fears of an all-out conflict receded. Brent crude ticked up only 1.1% to over $73 a barrel, a muted reaction that underscored an ‘optimistic stance’ among investors, according to ING analyst Francesco Pesole.
The ceasefire halted the worst outbreak of violence since the two nations signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17. However, the damage to tech stocks remains severe: the ‘Magnificent Seven’ group of mega-cap technology companies shed a record $2.8 trillion in market capitalization this month, with Nvidia and Alphabet each falling more than 8% last week alone. The Nasdaq Composite dropped over 4.5% last week, its longest losing streak since January.
Now, attention pivots to Thursday’s June payrolls report, a data point that could sway Federal Reserve policy and ripple through crypto markets. Economists expect around 110,000 new jobs, following three straight months of solid gains. A stronger-than-expected number would likely reignite rate hike bets; fed funds futures already show better-than-even odds of an increase by September. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, making his first international appearance at the ECB’s Sintra forum, will be closely watched for hints on the rate path. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered at 4.382% Monday.
Meanwhile, inflation breached 4% for the first time in three years, propelled partly by energy costs. Although oil has eased from its mid-June peak of $100 to around $70 on ceasefire hopes, the underlying price pressures feed the Fed’s hawkishness. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, up 85% from March lows, has pulled back sharply, reflecting mounting concerns that higher borrowing costs could choke the tech-driven rally. For crypto, the interplay of easing Middle East tensions and tightening monetary fears creates a neutral-to-cautious backdrop: near-term relief battles with the persistent drag of rate uncertainty.
