SanDisk shares (SNDK) surged 4.9% on Tuesday after Bernstein analysts raised their 12-month price target on the stock to $3,000 from $1,700, implying a 46% upside from Monday’s close. The upgrade is driven by a structural shift in memory contracting and booming demand for AI-related storage.
Bernstein highlighted that new long-term agreements (LTAs) now include fixed or range-bound prices, longer durations, and upfront financial commitments, which significantly reduce exposure to traditional cyclical downturns. SanDisk’s floor price in recent LTAs is estimated at $0.29 per gigabyte, well above competitors’ effective floor prices. This new model could boost SanDisk’s earnings to $214 per share by fiscal 2030, compared to $81 without LTAs.
Separately, Google Gemini AI projected SanDisk could reach $2,650 by end-of-year 2026 if structural supply deficits persist and a subscription-like revenue model takes hold. The bear case, however, sees a pullback to $1,750 if hyperscaler capex cools or memory supply catches up. The stock has already soared 767% year-to-date, making it the best performer in the S&P 500, and recently traded near $2,050 after hitting an all-time high above $2,300.
