CryptoQuant data reveals a significant shift in derivatives markets for both XRP and Bitcoin, pointing to sharply reduced speculative appetite. XRP's funding rate on Binance has plunged to approximately -0.0139, the lowest level in three months, while Bitcoin's open interest has collapsed from a peak of $45 billion to just $20.4 billion.
The negative funding rate for XRP indicates that demand for short positions has overtaken demand for long positions, with traders betting on further price declines. CryptoQuant notes that while such deeply negative rates reflect bearish sentiment, they also raise the possibility of a short squeeze if a positive catalyst triggers sudden buying pressure. The XRP futures market, which saw open interest above 1.3 billion tokens in late 2025, now sits at roughly 375.56 million XRP, and the open interest turnover ratio has stabilized near 0.71—a sign that short-term speculation has cooled substantially.
Bitcoin's open interest, meanwhile, has endured an orderly but dramatic unwinding. After topping $45 billion in July 2025, leverage has systematically exited the system, with the largest single-day liquidation event on record occurring on October 10 as price fell from an all-time high near $122,574. More than 20% of remaining leverage was purged by February 2026, and June saw a third wave of forced selling. CryptoQuant frames the process as deleveraging rather than panic, noting that the decline in open interest and the drop in price have tracked one another closely. Still, current open interest at $20.4 billion remains well above the $10 billion lows of 2023, leaving room for further downside if leverage continues to unwind through the summer.
