Citigroup has cut its 12-month Bitcoin price target to $82,000 from $112,000 and Ether to $2,240 from $3,175, a downgrade of roughly 27% and 29% respectively. The revision was driven by a single modeling change: the bank zeroed out its assumed net ETF inflows for the coming year, previously set at $10 billion, after actual spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned negative. Year-to-date, Bitcoin ETFs have seen about $3.3 billion in outflows, and sustained redemptions forced Citi to recalibrate its flow-based model.
Despite the reduced targets, they still imply significant upside from current depressed levels—Bitcoin at $58,900 and Ether at $1,570 at the time of the note. The $82,000 BTC target sits roughly 39% above the market, while the $2,240 ETH target is about 41% higher. Citi is not calling for further downside; it lowered the ceiling while maintaining a constructive medium-term view. The bank flagged three additional headwinds: stalled US crypto legislation, potential bitcoin sales by digital-asset treasury companies, and a rotation of investor capital into AI assets. The downgrade is thus a flow-model recalibration, not a fundamental break with the asset class. A return of ETF inflows would reverse the assumption and lift the modeled price ceiling.
