ASML Holding N.V. rallied 24.3% in June, driven not by its own earnings but by a wave of semiconductor investment news and a high-profile endorsement from Elon Musk. The stock closed at $1,769.89 on July 2, capping a standout month for the Dutch chip equipment giant.
The rally’s ignition came early in June when Musk posted on X that “ASML should be treasured and supported. It is arguably the greatest company in Europe.” That comment preceded his visit to ASML’s headquarters, timed around SpaceX’s $86 billion IPO. Musk later spoke at ASML’s technology conference, fueling speculation that his Terafab project—a joint silicon manufacturing venture between SpaceX and Tesla—is advancing, with ASML’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines at its core.
Further momentum came from the memory chip sector. On June 24, Micron reported fiscal Q3 earnings that beat expectations significantly and raised its capital expenditure forecast to $27 billion for the year, up from $25 billion. Then, on the final day of June, Samsung and SK Hynix jointly announced a combined $520 billion in planned spending for new greenfield memory fabs. All three companies rely heavily on ASML’s EUV tools, implying robust future demand.
Analyst upgrades followed. Wells Fargo lifted its wafer front-end equipment spending estimate to $190 billion in 2027 and $216 billion in 2028, while Susquehanna projected a potential $300 billion by 2028, citing possible equipment price increases as customers compete for limited supply.
ASML itself reported strong Q1 2026 numbers—€8.8 billion in net sales, a 53.0% gross margin, and €2.8 billion in net income—and raised full-year guidance to €36–40 billion. Long-term targets of €44–60 billion in revenue by 2030 with gross margins of 56–60% were reiterated. The next catalyst will be Q2 earnings on July 15, with consensus EPS of $7.98, a 75% year-over-year jump.
Despite the powerful moat, risks remain. China accounted for 33% of last year’s sales, and a proposed U.S. law could tighten export restrictions further. Valuation is also stretched: ASML’s forward P/E of 50.33 sits above the industry average, and recent analyst targets have converged near—or below—the current price, signaling limited near-term upside.
