Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, has warned that a sustained Bitcoin price recovery is unlikely without a fresh wave of global liquidity. In a series of posts on X, Timmer explained that Bitcoin is currently testing its long-term support level near $60,000, but lacks the necessary catalysts to break higher.
Timmer applies the Power Law model, which estimates Bitcoin’s structural support at $58,237. This level has historically acted as a floor during major market bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022. “The premium built up during past bull markets is gone,” Timmer noted. “Without an influx of global liquidity, crossing the baseline will be difficult.” He pointed out that the speculative premium that once drove Bitcoin toward $120,000 has largely evaporated, leaving the market vulnerable.
Global money supply growth has been slowing, and central banks worldwide have kept tighter monetary policies to combat persistent inflation. In previous cycles, expanding liquidity often preceded Bitcoin rallies as investors sought alternative stores of value. Now, with capital flows constrained, the environment lacks the macroeconomic tailwinds that previously propelled prices higher.
Timmer does not expect an immediate V-shaped reversal. Instead, he anticipates a period of sideways consolidation near the support zone before any eventual recovery. The $58,000–$60,000 range will be critical: a sustained breakdown could signal further downside, while a meaningful bounce would likely require a clear shift in global monetary conditions.
