Spotify has demanded that prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket remove its logo and clarify they are not affiliated, after more than 500,000 artificial streams distorted a betting market on song charts.
The controversy erupted when Malcolm Todd’s song “Earrings” suddenly shot to the top of Spotify’s daily US chart, triggering an alarm from trader Caleb Davies. Davies, who has earned an estimated $1.2 million from chart-based betting, calculated the jump had a 1 in 77 octillion chance of happening naturally. He later accused Kalshi of settling the market even after being warned of suspicious activity. “Kalshi did pay out the market based on fraudulent results right after sending me an email stating that there are many plausible reasons that Malcolm Todd’s timely surge was not due to artificial boosting,” Davies tweeted.
Spotify confirmed it found evidence of artificial streaming and removed roughly 500,000 fake plays, dropping the song to fourth place. The company said it will add additional checks before publishing chart data. The market on Kalshi — asking which song would be the most‑streamed in the US in June — had attracted about $3 million in trading and had already been settled before the correction.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket were told to remove Spotify’s logo, as the streaming service says it has never partnered with either platform. A Kalshi spokesperson said the firm is “actively investigating this matter.” Criticism also came from Amanda Fischer, a former SEC official, who said platforms should verify contracts are not susceptible to manipulation before listing them.
The manipulation incident adds to a year of regulatory pressure. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is already investigating Polymarket over alleged staged trading videos and other aspects, while several states are challenging prediction markets as unlicensed sports betting. Ethereum co‑founder Vitalik Buterin earlier called for multiple independent data sources after a weather‑based manipulation at Paris‑Charles de Gaulle Airport. Davies told WIRED he will step away from chart‑based markets due to the risks.
