Gold prices surged on Friday, putting the precious metal on track for its first weekly gain in over a month after a sharply weaker-than-expected US employment report reduced the odds of a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike. The macro shift is also providing a tailwind for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which often benefit from a more dovish monetary policy outlook.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57,000 in June, well below the 115,000 consensus estimate and a downwardly revised 129,000 in May. The unemployment rate edged lower, but labor force participation fell to its lowest since March 2021, signaling underlying weakness. Markets swiftly repriced Fed expectations: according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September rate hike dropped from 65% to 53.5%.
Lower rate hike odds weighed on the US Dollar Index, which was on track for its biggest weekly decline since April. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated assets more attractive for foreign buyers and reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. This classic gold-supportive backdrop also tends to lift risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, as liquidity concerns ease.
Spot gold rose 1.4% to around $4,182 per ounce, while silver jumped 2.9% to $62.77, platinum gained 2.8%, and palladium added 1%. Despite Friday’s rally, gold remains about 22% below its all-time high of $5,300 set in January 2026. Analysts at OCBC were “cautiously constructive,” noting that a sustained recovery would require further easing of real yields and a softer Fed tone. Central bank buying also provided a floor, with net purchases of 41 metric tons in May.
For the crypto market, the data acts as a macro catalyst. Bitcoin has historically rallied when rate hike bets fade, and the reduced hawkish pressure could encourage capital flows back into digital assets. Traders will now watch upcoming US economic releases – including the FOMC minutes, ISM Services PMI, and July 14 inflation report – for further clues on Fed policy direction.
