XRP is trading around $1.13 on July 5, 2026, as conflicting technical signals keep traders on edge. The token is up over 8% in the past week, but remains below the crucial $1.20 zone where a potential weekly death cross looms.
Bullish outlook: the 8.5-year cup and handle
According to CoinMarketCap, a macro chart pattern spanning more than eight years has finally printed a classic cup-and-handle formation. One popular analyst stresses that XRP is now in a major "area of opportunity" after dropping from $2 earlier in 2026 to a recent low near $1.08. While he awaits confirmation—a higher low or reclaiming of the weekly 20/50 EMAs at $1.35 and $1.65—he emphasizes that these prices are "macro gifts." Fibonacci extensions based on the pattern project long-term targets of $8, $13, and even $27 if the handle support holds.
Another analyst notes a strong move above $1.145 with the RSI exploding above 80, signaling extreme momentum but also warning of a short-term cooldown. Immediate targets are $1.17 and $1.30.
Death cross threat at the 200‑week SMA
On the other side, analyst ChartNerd warns that XRP is on the verge of a weekly 20 EMA / 200‑week SMA death cross. The 200‑week SMA, currently near $1.20, could flip from a historic support floor to a supply ceiling. He cited two historical parallels: in 2022 XRP bottomed shortly after a similar signal, while during the 2018–2020 bear market the final low came months later after repeated failures near the 200‑week SMA. Reclaiming $1.20 would invalidate the bearish scenario.
Key levels to watch
The daily chart shows XRP rebounding from the lower Bollinger Band near $1 and holding the middle band around $1.1064. Holding above $1.10 keeps the short‑term recovery alive, but a breakdown would bring $1.00–$1.03 back into focus. Crypto.news analysis highlights three critical levels: $1.10 as immediate support, $1.20 to negate the death cross, and $1.40 to confirm a stronger double‑bottom structure. As long as XRP remains below $1.20, the broader trend stays cautious despite the bullish pattern on the long‑term chart.
