Research and brokerage firm Bernstein has reaffirmed its $150,000 year-end Bitcoin price target, arguing that the current market correction is significantly less severe than previous crypto bear markets and reflects a more mature institutional asset class. Bitcoin’s roughly 54% decline from its October 2025 peak of around $125,000 is considerably shallower than the 75% to 90% drawdowns that marked the end of previous cycles, according to a Bernstein research note led by analyst Gautam Chhugani.
While the correction has lasted roughly three quarters since the all-time high, the analysts noted that historic bear markets extended for 12 to 15 months with far steeper losses. The firm acknowledges its target now looks “ambitious” but believes the broader cycle will eventually turn. Institutional participation, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, and improving regulatory clarity are cited as structural tailwinds. Despite $5.5 billion in ETF outflows this year from a base of about $74 billion, Bernstein estimates combined inflows from corporate treasuries and ETFs will total around $10 billion in 2026 – down from $60 billion in 2025 – but still indicative of enduring institutional demand.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to be a net buyer, acquiring approximately 175,000 BTC worth $14 billion so far in 2026, lifting its holdings to 847,363 BTC. The company recently sold $216 million in Bitcoin to fund dividends but maintains USD reserves covering ~17 months of obligations, reducing forced selling risk. Bernstein also highlights regulatory progress such as the GENIUS Act and rapid growth in tokenized real-world assets, as well as Polymarket’s 50% odds for the Clarity Act’s passage, as factors that could boost market liquidity and institutional adoption.
