An unusual redistribution of XRP exchange flows and the first weekly outflow from US spot XRP ETFs since May have drawn sharp attention from traders. Data from multiple sources point to a market caught between shifting liquidity and a fading demand catalyst.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Xaif Crypto, Coinbase’s share of XRP net exchange flows plummeted from approximately 28% to just 1.8%, while Bittrex absorbed nearly 30% of all net transfers — its highest level in months. The shift occurred without a corresponding price move, with XRP holding near $1.10, suggesting large players may be repositioning ahead of a directional move.
Adding to the caution, SoSoValue data showed US spot XRP ETFs registered a $7.18 million net outflow for the week ending July 10, snapping a nine-week streak that had accumulated roughly $196 million in inflows. This reversal removes the steadiest source of demand that had persisted through XRP’s multi-month decline.
The derivatives market paints a similarly fragile picture. Binance open interest fell from above $500 million in mid-June to $399 million by July 10, a contraction of about 20%. Long liquidations surged 94% week-over-week, while funding rates rebounded sharply — a structure that historically precedes funding-rate resets and rapid unwinds, according to CryptoOnchain.
On-chain, the XRP Ledger recorded just 25,350 active wallets, the second-lowest day of 2026, with new wallet creation at its weakest since November 2024. Santiment noted that traders appear to be “waiting for a real catalyst instead of chasing another small bounce.”
Technical analysis underscores the headwinds. XRP trades below its 50-day ($1.1648), 100-day ($1.2804), and 200-day ($1.4546) simple moving averages, all in bearish alignment. The July 5-6 recovery attempt stalled at the descending 50-day SMA, marking the third failed bounce since May.
A daily close above the 50-day SMA and a return of ETF inflows are needed to challenge the downtrend. Conversely, a break below the $1.05 support shelf could push XRP under $1 for the first time since November 2024, with the funding stress adding acceleration risk.
