Cardano (ADA) enters the new week under sustained selling pressure, hovering near the critical $0.16 zone after failing to extend last week's rally toward $0.190. The price has declined more than 14% over the past seven days, and despite a notable accumulation by large holders, bearish derivatives positioning and weak technical indicators suggest the token may face further downside.
Whales aggressively accumulate On-chain data from Santiment reveals that wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA have collectively added approximately 320 million ADA since July 7. This buying occurred as the price retreated, signaling long-term confidence among major investors. However, this demand has not been enough to stabilize the price, which continues to drift lower.
Derivatives market paints a bearish picture Cardano's futures Open Interest has fallen to around $389 million, resuming a broader downward trend after a brief early-July bounce. Falling OI alongside declining price typically indicates traders are exiting rather than adding new longs. The Open Interest-Weighted Funding Rate turned negative at -0.0028% on Monday, meaning short positions are paying longs and confirming that bearish bets dominate. Additionally, the long-to-short ratio has slumped to 0.79, one of the lowest readings in over a month, underscoring expectations of further declines.
Key technical levels to watch ADA remains firmly below its 50-day ($0.181), 100-day ($0.211), and 200-day ($0.280) EMAs, which form a descending barrier for any recovery attempt. The RSI hovers near 41, while the MACD drifts toward the zero line, suggesting fading bullish momentum. Immediate support lies at $0.162–$0.164 (a zone highlighted in multiple analyses) and $0.150. A break below could expose the $0.138 Fibonacci support. On the upside, resistance sits at $0.170–$0.173 and the stronger $0.180–$0.190 region.
The U.S. CPI report on July 14 is seen as the primary short-term catalyst. A softer inflation reading could revive risk appetite and help ADA reclaim the $0.170–$0.180 area, but for now, the technical and derivatives setup keeps the pressure on sellers to hold the line at support.
