Bitcoin price dipped below $63,000 today after a 1.8% drop, breaking the weekend support that had held near $63,000. The broader crypto market cap stands at $2.19 trillion, down 0.20% over the past day. While spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded their first weekly net inflows in eight weeks, analysts caution that the recovery is fragile and downside risks remain elevated.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $197 million in net inflows for the week ending July 10, snapping an eight-week streak of outflows that had drained approximately $8.26 billion from the funds. Spot Ethereum ETFs also saw $84.42 million in net inflows, ending their own eight-week outflow streak. However, the $197 million inflow recovers only about 2.4% of the prior losses, highlighting that demand has not fully returned.
Weekly flow data showed uneven demand. Bitcoin ETFs opened with $265.7 million on Monday, but inflows slowed sharply, with combined withdrawals of roughly $180.2 million on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday's $90.4 million inflow pushed the week into positive territory. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $291.9 million in weekly inflows, while Grayscale’s GBTC lost about $108.2 million and Fidelity’s FBTC shed $93.4 million. Trading volume across Bitcoin ETFs reached $84.1 billion, the lowest normal five-day total since October 2025.
Crypto analyst Joao Wedson noted that long-term holder supply now stands at 84%, while short-term holder supply is at its lowest since 2016. The LTH/STH ratio is above 5.0, signaling strong conviction. This structural shift means most Bitcoin is held by investors with longer time horizons, potentially reducing immediate sell pressure. However, it also indicates that short-term traders are exiting, which could delay a price recovery.
Not all analysts share the bullish interpretation. Mr. Wall Street warns that Bitcoin is preparing to break below the weekly 200-week moving average. He points out that selling pressure from the $126,000 top remains, and once spot bids fail to absorb it, Bitcoin could drop to the $53,000–$55,000 region. He expects further capitulation, suggesting that many investors who bought above $100,000 are still holding positions and may sell at a loss, marking the final stage of the bear market.
In the broader market, XRP held support around $1.08–$1.09 after Ripple secured a full MiCA license in Luxembourg, enabling regulated payment and custody services across the EU. Seven spot XRP ETFs launched since November 2025 have expanded institutional access. Ethereum’s price held near $1,794 after ETF inflows resumed and the Ethereum Foundation patched a medium-level bug using AI-assisted testing. Circle also obtained approval for a U.S. trust bank, advancing stablecoin adoption.
The mixed signals suggest a cautious market. While ETF inflows and strong holder conviction offer some support, the limited scale of inflows and persistent bearish technicals indicate that the bottom may not yet be in. The hot summer months and geopolitical tensions add to the uncertainty.
