The S&P 500 and Hang Seng Index are bracing for a turbulent week driven by a barrage of earnings reports, key economic data, and rising geopolitical tensions. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,575, near its all-time high, but perpetual futures on the Hyperliquid platform edged lower on Sunday.
Earnings season kicks into high gear on Tuesday, with five banking giants – JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo – reporting quarterly results. Together they represent nearly $2 trillion in market value. On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York, and PNC follow. Tech and healthcare heavyweights Netflix, UnitedHealth, General Electric Aerospace, Intuitive Surgical, and BlackRock also release figures this week. Analysts forecast S&P 500 earnings growth of 23.2% year-over-year, though the strong track record of beats suggests it could top 30%. These reports will offer the first clear window into corporate performance during the US-Iran conflict.
Inflation data arrives on Tuesday with the US consumer price index for June. Economists expect a 0.1% decline in headline CPI, reversing May’s 0.5% gain, helped by a drop in gasoline prices to $3.8820 from $4.1290. Core CPI is seen rising 0.3%. The producer price index follows a day later. Hotter prints would reinforce the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance; recent FOMC minutes showed officials debated whether to hike rates again. Meanwhile, Hong Kong traders will watch China’s trade numbers on Tuesday, with exports estimated up 18.2% and imports up 24%, and GDP on Wednesday. The consensus is a 0.9% quarter-on-quarter expansion, down from 1.3% in Q1, reflecting war-related headwinds.
US-Iran hostilities remain a wildcard. The US launched its third wave of strikes overnight, targeting military sites after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices jumped on Hyperliquid, and any further escalation could stoke both inflation and risk-off sentiment, dragging global indices lower. For the Hang Seng Index, higher energy costs complicate the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s ability to follow the Fed’s lead because of the HKD-USD peg.
AI industry jolts add another layer. SK Hynix’s blockbuster US IPO – the largest foreign listing since Alibaba – lifted chip names on Friday. Over the weekend, however, Apple sued OpenAI, alleging theft of trade secrets for hardware. Related stocks such as Nvidia and Broadcom may swing on the outcome. On the technical front, the Hang Seng Index is stuck at 24,125 resistance, with the RSI neutral and PPO lines trending up, hinting at a possible push toward 25,000.
