On-chain data reveals a dramatic shift in Bitcoin’s oldest coins. The two-year distribution phase, dubbed the “Great Distribution,” has effectively ended, according to Galaxy Digital Head of Research Alex Thorn. Monthly volumes of coins moved by veteran wallets — those held for one to ten years — have plunged more than 50% from their late‑2025 peak, when the 1–2 year cohort alone transferred nearly 900,000 BTC. Now, those same wallets are returning to deep sleep.
The cooling of sell‑side pressure coincides with a notable compression in profitability metrics. The adjusted MVRV for the 6-month to 10‑year holder cohort has drifted back into territory that, in every cycle since 2015, preceded valuation resets. Meanwhile, the Adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) reading has slid toward neutral without triggering panic. Long‑term holders remain comfortably profitable, but the euphoria has dissipated quietly.
Despite the evaporation of paper gains, there is no sign of capitulation. Realized price for the oldest wallets continues to climb, indicating that the average entry cost of these coins is rising even as spot price hovers near $62,600. This suggests the correction is driven by price retracement — not by conviction holders rushing for the exit. Short‑term holders, in contrast, are oscillating around break‑even and remain prone to sentiment selling.
The supply picture adds further complexity. Binance’s Bitcoin reserve ratio has dropped to a record low while roughly $43 billion in stablecoins sits idle on the exchange. Whether fresh demand absorbs the limited float will determine the next leg. History suggests that after similar resets since 2015, patient accumulation slowly soaked up supply; however, CryptoQuant stops short of calling an immediate reversal.
Thorn also addressed the quantum‑computer narrative that had spooked some institutional investors, clarifying that no selling whale cited quantum risk as a motive. Meanwhile, work on quantum‑resistant upgrades is advancing. With veteran selling vanishing and the market shedding its most persistent overhang, Bitcoin appears to have entered a stabilization phase.
