Nio Inc. stock has regained momentum, surging in the premarket to $5.13 after a sharp two‑month decline from $6.98 to a low of $4.66. The rebound is being fueled by a fresh upgrade from Goldman Sachs, which moved the Chinese EV maker from Neutral to Buy and lifted its 12‑month price target from $6.60 to $7.00 – implying a potential 42% upside from Monday’s close.
Goldman analyst Tina Hou argued that the stock has become “disconnected from the company’s improving fundamentals.” Nio’s first‑half 2026 deliveries soared 67% year‑over‑year to 191,000 units, far outpacing the broader NEV market, which saw retail sales fall 14% over the same period. In June alone, deliveries jumped 62.9% to 40,597 vehicles, supported by the new ES9 and the five‑seat ES8. The ES8 has been a standout, averaging over 10,000 monthly sales in the last 12 months and dominating the Rmb400k+ SUV segment.
Revenue growth is also accelerating. Consensus estimates call for a 76% revenue jump to CNY 33.5 billion in the latest quarter and a 56% annual increase to CNY 136.3 billion for full‑year 2026. Hou projects vehicle gross margins reaching 17% – above the peer average of 15% – and a swing from a Rmb12.4 billion net loss in 2025 to a Rmb1.6 billion profit in 2026. Free cash flow is expected to turn positive, surging from -Rmb3.1 billion to +Rmb12.1 billion.
From a valuation perspective, Nio trades at a 25‑29% discount to NEV peers on a price‑to‑sales basis and a 17% discount on forward earnings, which Hou sees as a buying opportunity. Technical indicators also support the bullish case: the stock has broken out of a descending channel, the Percentage Price Oscillator crossed bullishly, and the RSI is trending above its signal line. With Chinese EV exports already surpassing 1 million units in June and Nio’s lineup expanding, the stock appears poised for further gains, though much will depend on upcoming earnings.
