William Blair lowered its revenue and earnings forecasts for Coinbase on Wednesday, citing weaker-than-expected crypto trading activity. Despite the downgrade, the firm maintained an Outperform rating and argued that the prolonged crypto bear market is approaching its trough as Bitcoin prices show signs of stabilization and new revenue streams begin to emerge.
The investment firm cut its 2026 revenue estimate by 12% and its 2027 forecast by 13%, alongside a 34% reduction in adjusted EBITDA for both years. Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury noted that Wall Street is expected to continue lowering near-term expectations, but they believe Coinbase’s earnings will bottom by the end of the current year before recovering in 2027.
“We think investors should stay involved in Coinbase as spot crypto volume potentially bottoms alongside bitcoin and new revenue drivers emerge,” the analysts wrote. William Blair projects total trading volume on Coinbase to decline approximately 44% this year to $669 billion, then rebound over 32% in 2027.
The firm contends that the current cycle differs markedly from the 2022 downturn due to the proliferation of spot Bitcoin ETFs, increased institutional participation, and a more favorable regulatory environment. Beyond the anticipated cyclical recovery, Coinbase’s expanding business mix was highlighted as a source of optimism. Retail derivatives and prediction markets are cited as burgeoning contributors to revenue, while the company’s Base Layer 2 network is expected to become a significant earnings driver through trading activity, sequencer fees, and a potential future token launch.
Jeffrey and Choudhury also emphasized that Base positions Coinbase to capitalize on the growing market for tokenized real-world assets, which The Block estimates has already surpassed $22.5 billion. As of early Wednesday, Coinbase shares were up about 1% to $162.63, though the stock has fallen roughly 32% year-to-date, paralleling Bitcoin’s 26% decline over the same period.
