Netflix is set to report its second-quarter 2026 earnings after the market closes on Thursday, with the stock down roughly 20% year-to-date and investors hunting for any sign of a turnaround. The streaming giant, once a pandemic darling, has seen its shares tumble from a record closing high of $133.91 in June 2025 to around $73.78—a decline of about 45%. The pressure is on for the company to deliver results that can calm fears of slowing engagement, intensifying competition, and the potential disruption from AI in content creation.
Wall Street expects Netflix to post adjusted earnings of $0.79 per share on revenue of $12.58 billion, a 13.5% year-over-year increase. Those numbers would represent solid growth, but the market’s focus is squarely on guidance. Analysts at Morningstar note that investors want to see revenue growth reaccelerate toward the 15% mark to dispel worries of organic deceleration. International performance will be under the microscope; price hikes in the U.S. are expected to support domestic revenue, but any slowdown overseas could signal trouble for long-term expansion.
Options markets, however, hint at cautious optimism. Call volumes have been outpacing puts by two-to-one, and one popular strategy involves selling at-the-money puts—a bet that the stock will hold its ground. The implied post-earnings move of 7.6% is in line with the average realized move over the past year, yet Netflix shares have fallen after each of the last four quarterly reports. Technical analysts note that the stock is testing the rising 200-week moving average and a key $70 support level that dates back to late 2021.
Analyst sentiment is mixed but leans positive. Bank of America maintains a Buy rating and $125 price target, implying roughly 70% upside, arguing that management has consistently adapted to challenges—as it did with paid sharing and ad tiers in 2022. Morgan Stanley and KeyBanc lowered their targets to $90 and $92 respectively, citing engagement concerns and the need for fresh growth levers such as content diversification, live events, and the TF1 partnership. Guggenheim reiterated a Buy and $120 target but flagged Netflix as the top short idea in its survey heading into earnings, underlining the skepticism.
Competition remains a key risk. Paramount Skydance’s pending acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery could create a powerful new rival, while TikTok and YouTube continue to eat into viewing time. Netflix’s response—short-form clips, podcasts, and always-on channels—may need time to prove its value. The earnings call will also be scrutinized for any updates on strategic M&A and the 2030 growth framework that targets $78 billion in revenue and 410 million members.
