PlanB Forecasts Bitcoin Surge to $500K in Current Halving Cycle

2 hour ago 3 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • PlanB's bullish targets rely on halving-driven scarcity, with real price acceleration not anticipated until 2026-2028, testing short-term traders' patience.
  • A potential drop below the $53K realized price may serve as a capitulation event, offering accumulation opportunities for long-term BTC holders.
  • S2F model's focus on supply-side dynamics overlooks demand risks, leaving the $500K target exposed if institutional or retail adoption slows.

Popular on-chain analyst PlanB, creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, issued a bullish forecast for Bitcoin, predicting it could reach between $250,000 and $1 million during the current halving cycle, with an average target of $500,000. The prediction comes despite recent market cooldown, and the analyst urged investors to remain patient.

PlanB's argument hinges on Bitcoin's mathematical cyclicality linked to halvings. The April 2024 halving has passed, and 639 days remain in this epoch, meaning the real climb toward S2F target levels should unfold between 2026 and 2028. He noted the local high of $126,000 was not the peak of this four-year period, and the S2F model points to a fundamental average price rising due to asset scarcity.

In a 'maximum pain' scenario, PlanB acknowledged Bitcoin could set a new local low below the realized price of $53,000 before surging. History shows bitcoin often begins a new growth phase amid retail capitulation, and a rapid rise to $500,000–$1 million would inflict heavy losses on short sellers and skeptics. His final advice: 'Patience.'

Previously on the topic:
Jul 9, 2026, 1:42 p.m.
Bitcoin Risks Deeper Drop If $61K Support Fails
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