Ethereum’s native token slipped roughly 4% over the past day, settling near $1,835 after a brief surge above $1,930 earlier in the week. The pullback has reignited a heated debate among market analysts, with some pointing to historical patterns suggesting a deeper capitulation event while others see a near-term rally taking the price toward $2,245 and beyond.
Bearish fractal warns of another crash
Crypto Rover highlighted a repeating 1,369-day pattern that he believes has governed Ethereum’s major cycles. In the two previous instances, a 30% rally led to a sharp rejection and a devastating sell-off to new local lows. If the fractal holds, Rover warned, ETH could tumble below $1,500 — a multi-year low — before eventually recovering. He noted, however, that the same pattern has historically preceded a long-term surge, eventually targeting as high as $10,000.
Contrasting short-term bullish views
Not all analysts share this gloomy outlook. Michaël van de Poppe called ETH’s recent push above $1,900 “phenomenal” and said he doubts the market will see many new lows. He sees Ethereum entering a “buy-the-dip” regime with short-term targets of $2,500–$2,700 by the start of Q4.
Ali Martinez pointed to Ethereum’s historical behavior around the 0.8 MVRV Pricing Band. Once ETH reclaimed this band as support, it tended to rally toward its Realized Price, currently at $2,245. Tony Research outlined a similar path: a correction to the $1,800 zone, a rally to $2,000–$2,200, followed by a distribution phase and a final correction into the $1,260–$890 range before the next bull cycle, which he expects to carry ETH to $7,000.
ETF flows turn negative
On the institutional side, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs registered over $28 million in net outflows after two consecutive days of inflows. Grayscale’s ETH fund led the exodus with nearly $14.3 million in withdrawals, followed by Fidelity’s FETH ($11 million) and Grayscale’s ETHE ($4.8 million). Bitwise’s ETHW was the only product to attract fresh capital, bringing in $2.3 million. July remains net positive overall with total inflows exceeding $190 million.
