Market sentiment is shifting in favor of Stellar (XLM) over Ripple (XRP), according to data from the prediction platform Kalshi. On a contract asking which cryptocurrency will end the year with a positive return, 36% of bets are backing XLM, while only 31% support XRP. Although the gap is modest, it reflects growing confidence in Stellar’s resilience amid weak market conditions.
Year-to-date figures reinforce that sentiment. As of mid-July 2026, XLM has fallen just 5.99%, whereas XRP has plunged 39.8%. Over the past three months, XLM has climbed 17.8%, while XRP slid 21.4%, highlighting a stark divergence in performance.
XRP’s decline is especially striking given its history. Exactly one year ago, on July 17, 2025, the token hit an all-time high of $3.65, fueled by the post-election rally. But the momentum evaporated quickly. By August 2025 it was below $3, and an October crash sent it to as low as $1.10 on some exchanges. A brief recovery to $2.60 was followed by a prolonged downtrend, with XRP now trading around $1.08 — a 70% collapse from the peak.
Ripple, the company behind XRP, has not been idle. It completed the $1.25 billion acquisition of Hidden Road, launched Ripple Prime, received initial approval for a national trust bank, and secured a full MiCA license in Europe. The first spot XRP ETFs were also approved in the U.S. in November 2025. Yet these fundamental milestones have failed to stem the token’s decline, raising questions about whether the market has already priced them in.
Stellar, meanwhile, has quietly crossed $3 billion in real-world assets (RWAs) this month, adding to its momentum. With XLM showing stronger short- and medium-term price action, Kalshi traders’ bets suggest that, for now, the market sees Stellar as the better candidate to end the year in the green.
