Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has drawn a parallel between the trajectory of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the early days of gold ETFs, cautioning that Bitcoin could face a sharp pullback followed by a prolonged, patience-testing recovery. According to Balchunas, both assets are sentiment-driven stores of value with no cash flow, making them vulnerable to rapid rallies and extended flat or corrective periods.
The warning comes as data from the Kobeissi Letter reveals a historic exodus from the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, the World Gold Council’s GLD. In March 2026 alone, investors withdrew a record $8.5 billion—the largest monthly outflow in GLD’s 22-year history. Subsequent months saw continued redemptions: $1.7 billion in April, $872 million in May, and $3.2 billion in June, pushing total outflows since March 1 to roughly $14.4 billion. This 50% exceeds the $9.6 billion pulled from all Bitcoin ETFs since their October peak.
Gold’s price has mirrored the outflows, tumbling from a late-January peak of $5,600/oz to around $4,000/oz—a nearly 30% decline. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs have suffered their own bleeding. Since mid-May, investors have withdrawn over $8 billion, cutting cumulative net inflows from $59.34 billion to $51.22 billion. June was the worst month, with more than $4.5 billion leaving the funds, coinciding with BTC’s plunge from $83,000 to a multi-year low of $57,700 on July 1.
While GLD’s assets under management of about $130 billion dwarf all spot Bitcoin ETFs combined, the parallel outflows and price drops underline how sentiment-driven demand can swiftly reverse. Balchunas’s scenario—a dramatic rise, a painful pullback, and a slow recovery—now hangs over the crypto market as investors weigh the possibility that Bitcoin’s ETF-driven rally may follow gold’s difficult path.
