Bitcoin steadied near $64,200 on Monday after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed Washington remains open to a diplomatic resolution with Iran, even as US Central Command acknowledged fresh strikes in the region. The comments offered enough relief for Bitcoin to bounce from its weekend lows, though the market remains wary of further escalation.
The geopolitical backdrop has pulled crude oil and Bitcoin back into alignment. The correlation coefficient between BTC and WTI Crude now sits at 0.67, just 0.02 below the level that preceded their last major decoupling. WTI rallied to $85.59 a barrel, while Brent Crude touched $91.40 in early trading, reigniting fears that oil-driven inflation could keep risk assets under pressure.
Just a week ago, a cooler consumer price index print of 3.5% — below the projected 3.8% — sparked a brief relief rally. US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew roughly $75.65 million in inflows across that window. However, the oil rally has since reversed that mood, with the Coinbase Premium Index slipping to -0.0629%, signalling softer US demand. American investors have been net sellers since May 18, a stretch in which Bitcoin fell roughly 17% from $77,414 to current levels.
The correlation between Bitcoin and oil has moved through distinct phases since October 2025. A steady rise peaked in January, then the two assets decoupled sharply as Bitcoin fell while oil surged. Since April they have moved largely in step again. The current reading near 0.67 brings the relationship back to a zone where previous breakdowns occurred, making inflationary pressures from the Iran conflict a key variable for Bitcoin’s next move.
If diplomatic progress continues, analysts see Bitcoin potentially reclaiming $67,000 and testing the $70,000 ceiling. A relapse into heavier conflict, however, could crack the $64,000 support and send prices toward the low $60,000s. For now, the market’s path depends less on charts and more on headlines from the Middle East.
