Global markets started the week under pressure as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions sent oil prices sharply higher, while investors braced for a crucial week of tech earnings. Bitcoin traded flat near $64,200, caught between rising inflation fears and ongoing fallout from a Chinese AI model release.
Oil surge renews inflation anxiety
Brent crude jumped nearly 4% to above $91 a barrel — its highest since June — as U.S. military strikes on Iran continued for a ninth consecutive day. Reports of immobilized tankers in the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears of supply disruptions. A ceasefire agreement signed in June has collapsed, erasing a decline that had sent Brent back to around $70. The renewed conflict pushed European stock benchmarks lower: the STOXX 600 slipped 0.2%, with travel and leisure stocks falling 1.3% on fuel cost concerns, while energy shares gained 1.4%. Ryanair dropped 5.71% after warning that higher fuel costs and lower fares hurt its profit.
Investors now worry that sustained high oil prices will stoke inflation, potentially forcing central banks to keep interest rates elevated for longer — a headwind for risk assets including cryptocurrencies. The European Central Bank meets later this week and is expected to hold rates steady, but markets will scrutinize any signal on future policy.
Crypto markets muted but resilient
Despite the macro turbulence, Bitcoin held near $64,200 with a 3% weekly gain and $18 billion in trading volume. Ether rose 5% to $1,860, while other major tokens were largely unchanged: XRP at $1.09, Solana at $76, BNB at $565, and Dogecoin near $0.07. Hyperliquid’s HYPE fell 10% over the week.
The flat performance suggests crypto is currently suspended between two forces: oil-driven inflation fears and the lingering tech shock from China’s Moonshot AI. The company’s open-weight model, Kimi K3, beat a key coding benchmark on Friday, sparking a selloff in chip stocks that dragged the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index into bear market territory — down over 20% from its June high. Moonshot AI is now preparing a Hong Kong IPO that could value it above $30 billion.
Earnings week to set the tone
All eyes now turn to Big Tech earnings: Alphabet reports Tuesday, Tesla on Wednesday, and Intel on Thursday. These results will test whether AI infrastructure spending can continue to support the broader equity and risk-asset rally. U.S. futures steadied Monday with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.5%, but lingering questions about AI capital expenditure could amplify volatility. SpaceX also plans a Starship test flight this week, with shares recovering slightly in after-hours trading.
