Intel is set to report its second-quarter 2026 financial results after the market closes on Thursday, July 23, with Wall Street expecting a sharp turnaround in earnings and solid revenue growth. The chipmaker's performance has been a standout in the S&P 500 this year, though its stock has recently lost momentum, falling 32% from its year-to-date high. Here's a comprehensive look at the expectations and what's at stake.
What Analysts Expect
Consensus estimates call for Intel to post earnings per share of $0.22, a dramatic swing from the loss of $0.10 per share in the same quarter last year. Revenue is projected to reach $14.42 billion, marking a nearly 12% increase year-over-year. Intel's own guidance suggests EPS of $0.20. Last quarter, the company significantly outperformed expectations, delivering EPS of $0.29 against a forecast of $0.01, with revenue of $13.58 billion—up 7.4% from the prior year.
Analyst sentiment remains split. Citi’s Atif Malik maintains a Buy rating and a $130 price target, highlighting Intel’s CPU business and a projected 47% CPU market share by 2030. KeyBanc’s John Vinh is even more bullish, raising his target from $100 to $155 based on improved manufacturing yields and foundry progress. In contrast, Rosenblatt’s Kevin Cassidy kept a Sell rating while lifting his target to $65 from $50, cautioning that lower manufacturing yields could limit upside. The average price target stands at $113.72, implying about 19.66% upside from the current stock price. Overall, the consensus rating is a Hold, with 10 Buys, 24 Holds, and 2 Sells.
Manufacturing Milestones and New Deals
A key catalyst has been the progress of Intel’s 18A manufacturing node, which has achieved approximately 85% yields—up from 65% last quarter. Intel is also the first chipmaker to use ASML’s High-NA EUV machine in production for chips including Core Ultra 3 and Panther Lake. KeyBanc believes this progress could enable expanded 18A capacity and attract more foundry customers, with the next-generation 14A process expected to reach mass production by the second half of 2028.
Intel has also secured high-profile partnerships. It is a supplier to Elon Musk’s Terafab project, providing 14A manufacturing technology to design, fabricate, and package chips. It will manufacture some of Apple’s chips in its Texas plant, and Google will use Intel’s Xeon processors to power its cloud infrastructure—a deal potentially worth billions. The company also reached a $14.2 billion agreement with Apollo Global to repurchase the 49% equity stake in its Irish fab joint venture, strengthening its balance sheet.
Technical Picture and Risks
Despite the fundamental progress, Intel’s stock has formed a double-top pattern at $132.47 and has since fallen below key support levels. As of the latest session, shares hover around $95—below the major S/R pivot point and beneath the June 5 low of $98.93. One technical analysis suggests a further decline toward the $75 level is possible. The stock’s market cap is approximately $477 billion, and institutional investors hold 64.53% of shares.
Investors will be closely watching for any signs of PC demand weakness or execution setbacks when Intel reports on Thursday at 5:00 PM ET. With a beta of 2.18, the stock tends to move sharply, making this earnings event a potential volatility driver.
