Global oil prices surged dramatically on Monday, with Brent crude breaking above $90 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbing past $83 (even reaching $84.68 at its peak). The sharp rally is a direct consequence of escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran, which have severely disrupted tanker traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, has become the market’s pressure point. For a ninth consecutive night, the US conducted strikes against Iran, while Iran reportedly launched attacks on vessels in nearby waters of Kuwait and Bahrain. According to LSEG data, only four vessels crossed the strait on Sunday, down from eight on Saturday. Although some tankers are still loading, the reduced traffic has injected a substantial geopolitical risk premium into crude prices.
Analysts warn that the rally may have legs. Barclays' Amarpreet Singh cautioned that oil markets remain “too complacent” about the impact on inventories, which the bank estimates are at their tightest in five years. Low stockpiles act as a diminished shock absorber; any sustained export decline forces buyers to compete for prompt supplies, pushing prices higher. Quantum Strategy’s David Roche set a bullish target of $95–$105 per barrel for Brent, predicting declining Gulf exports will leave inventories tight by September. Barclays itself forecast an average Brent price of $96 for 2026 in late June.
A sustained climb toward $105 would require Hormuz traffic to remain restricted, exports to fall, and no diplomatic breakthrough. Damage to tankers or infrastructure could accelerate the move. Conversely, any sign of de-escalation could erase the risk premium quickly.
For crypto markets, the implications are primarily negative. Soaring energy costs raise operational expenses for Bitcoin miners, squeezing margins, while the broader macroeconomic fear of inflation triggered by expensive oil can lead to risk-off sentiment. With central banks possibly forced to maintain tight monetary policy longer, speculative assets like cryptocurrencies may face additional headwinds.
