SpaceX (SPCX) shares have been under intense selling pressure, closing at an all-time low of $123.99 on Friday before edging up 1.2% in premarket trading Monday. The stock is now more than 40% below its June 16 peak of $201.80 and trades beneath its $135 IPO price, wiping out roughly $1 trillion in market capitalization from the post-listing highs.
The decline accelerated after the July 16 Starship test flight was scrubbed when multiple engines failed to ignite just before liftoff. The abort erased about $100 billion in market value in a single session. SpaceX has since rescheduled the 13th flight test for July 23, with the goal of deploying 20 Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrating a mid-space engine reignition. Delays remain common in the Starship program, which has completed 12 test flights since 2023, but investors are closely watching for operational milestones.
A potential turnaround catalyst emerged late Friday: The Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX is in discussions with the U.S. Department of Defense to supply AI computing capacity. The deal would mirror existing agreements with Anthropic and Google that are projected to generate about $26 billion in annual revenue once fully scaled. SpaceX’s AI infrastructure is centered on the Colossus I and II data centers in Memphis, acquired through the February merger with xAI, with longer-term ambitions to place solar-powered AI data centers in orbit using Starship.
Wall Street remains largely constructive. Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to “hold” on July 17, while 27 of 32 analysts surveyed by LSEG rate it a Buy. The consensus price target stands at $234.78, nearly double current levels. Recent initiations include Susquehanna (Neutral, $170), Wedbush (Outperform, $190), and Needham (Buy, $250). Despite a net loss of $1.27 per share on revenue of $4.69 billion in the most recent quarter, institutional buyers such as Atwood & Palmer and Marquette Asset Management added small positions in Q2.
However, risks remain. The Defense Department talks could still fall through, and Starship’s next test flight is critical for restoring confidence. SpaceX’s ability to execute on both its AI and launch businesses will be key to reversing the stock’s downtrend.
