Solana's (SOL) price has fallen 75% from its 2025 peak of $295.90 to around $73, marking ten consecutive months without a single green candle. Despite the prolonged downtrend, institutional capital has continued to flow into spot Solana ETFs, and a major protocol upgrade combined with fresh payment partnerships are fueling debate about a potential August reversal.
The daily chart remains under pressure. SOL is trading near $73.30, roughly 7% below its 100-day moving average at $78.70. A descending trendline from the 2025 highs converges in the $78–$80 zone, creating a clear resistance area. Support is holding in the $70–$72 range, with stronger demand near $65–$68 where the token bounced in June. Momentum is weak, as the daily RSI sits at 42.98—below the neutral 50 level. For the outlook to improve, SOL needs a decisive close above $80, which would then bring $90–$95 back into view.
Institutional demand continues to accumulate. Spot Solana ETFs have collectively absorbed approximately $1.45 billion in cumulative inflows since launch. Morgan Stanley's new MSOL ETF debuted on NYSE Arca and immediately pulled in $19.06 million on its first trading day, accounting for all net inflows across US spot Solana ETFs that session. This solid institutional appetite is being seen as a potential long-term floor despite the weak price action.
The most anticipated catalyst is the staged Alpenglow upgrade, scheduled to roll out between August and October 2026. The upgrade aims to slash transaction finality from the current 12 seconds to roughly 150 milliseconds, a leap that could dramatically enhance Solana’s network performance. In parallel, Solana is extending its footprint into payments. Korea's KSNET, which serves 330,000 merchants and processes about 130 million transactions monthly, has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Solana Foundation to implement Solana Pay. If realized, this integration could bring decentralized payments to a vast user base.
Analyst scenarios for August hinge on the $70–$80 range. A bearish break below $70 would likely retest $65–$68, with $60 as the next psychological floor. A base case sees sideways consolidation as traders await clearer signals from ETF flows and the Alpenglow rollout. A bullish breakout above $80 could open a path to $85–$90 by month-end. The combination of institutional inflows, the upcoming upgrade, and payment adoption provides a strong narrative for a turn, but the chart still needs confirmation above resistance.
