The first week of August brings a critical stretch of US economic data that could lock in a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase in September, with analysts at Elev8 turning decisively bearish on both gold and Bitcoin. The calendar begins Tuesday with the ISM Manufacturing PMI for July, continues Wednesday with the JOLTS job openings report, Thursday with the ADP private payrolls and weekly jobless claims, and culminates Friday with the all-important nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for July.
The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.50%–3.75% on 29 July, the fifth straight pause, but the vote was an unusually hawkish 9–3. Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari and Dallas’s Lorie Logan all dissented in favor of a quarter‑point hike — the first unified three‑way dissent since September 2016. Chair Kevin Warsh has stripped forward guidance from the FOMC statement, leaving each data release to carry greater weight. Against a backdrop of above‑2% inflation for more than five years and an energy shock that has pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel, markets now price a September hike as likely, though FactSet’s economist consensus still expects no increases in 2026.
Elev8’s bearish stance on Bitcoin and gold
Kar Yong Ang, a financial market expert at Elev8, warned that “with Kevin Warsh in place, markets are likely to get less official clarity on future rate decisions. Therefore, traders should expect more volatility around key economic releases.” Ang added that “even if NFP comes out in line, it will almost guarantee a rate increase in September, so I am approaching both gold and Bitcoin with a bearish bias.”
Gold, trading near $4,107 an ounce on 31 July — about 27% below its January record of ~$5,597 — remains capped by rising real yields, with the 30‑year Treasury yield at its highest since 2007. Elev8 identifies upside resistance at $4,190–$4,220 and warns that a break below $4,000 could signal a deeper correction.
Bitcoin closed at $62,826 last Friday, roughly 50% below its October 2025 all‑time high. The cryptocurrency’s inverse correlation with real yields leaves it acutely exposed to tightening expectations. Ang summarized: “Inflation is Bitcoin’s single most potent enemy. It is very hard to be bullish when global monetary policy is turning hawkish. A very weak if not depressing NFP is needed to invalidate the underlying bearish trend.” Elev8 watches upside at 66,600–67,300 and downside at 60,000–57,800; a hot payrolls report could accelerate spot ETF outflows and push BTC toward a new year‑to‑date low.
With market pricing and economist forecasts diverging, the week’s data will be pivotal. A strong payrolls number above 90k would firm rate‑hike expectations, lifting yields and likely weighing heavily on both assets, while a soft print below 80k could offer temporary relief. However, Elev8 cautions that even a soft print may not trigger a sustained rally in gold or Bitcoin given the energy‑driven inflation pressures.
