Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat, has issued a stark warning that quantum computers could potentially break Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses by 2028-2029. Citing research from Google, Lee stated that advances in modern computing are moving faster than many in the industry anticipated, threatening to render Bitcoin’s existing protection mechanisms obsolete. He noted that the cryptocurrency community has yet to agree on a unified solution.
The warning specifically targets Bitcoin’s reliance on the ECDSA algorithm for digital signatures. While the network does not use encryption for transaction processing—as clarified by Hashcash pioneer Adam Back—quantum computers running Shor’s algorithm could theoretically derive private keys from exposed public keys. An estimated 30% to 35% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, roughly 7 million BTC, sits in legacy addresses or wallets where public keys are already visible on the blockchain. These include early mining rewards and coins attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto.
Lee suggested that Ethereum and Solana are much better protected due to adaptive protocol structures and more proactive quantum-resistant research. However, neither network has fully implemented quantum-safe measures. The threat remains theoretical since cryptographically relevant quantum computers do not yet exist, but proposals like BIP-361 could preemptively freeze exposed supply or force migration to secure addresses. The next few years will be critical for the industry to address these vulnerabilities.
