Bitcoin may have already carved out a cycle low, but deep divisions among analysts keep the floor and the next move far from settled. Nansen CEO Alex Svanevik told Cointelegraph he does not expect BTC to fall below $60,000 again, while veteran investor Michael Terpin warns of a possible plunge toward the $40,000 range. The clash of viewpoints reflects heightened uncertainty even after Bitcoin staged a relief bounce back to around $65,000.
Svanevik's confidence rests on the macro backdrop. He argues that relentless expansion of central bank balance sheets will continue to boost Bitcoin's appeal as a store of value, making sub-$60K prices a thing of the past. His call aligns with a growing institutional narrative that treats Bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement. Terpin, on the other hand, points to potential market corrections, regulatory headwinds, and profit-taking by large holders. A drop to $40K would represent a 66% decline from the all-time high of $126,100 reached in October 2025.
Technical analysis adds nuance. Bitcoin printed two monthly lows—around $57,900 in June and $57,750 in July—that formed a provisional floor. August has so far produced a higher low near $62,200, and price has reclaimed the 50-month simple moving average at roughly $60,800, along with a cost-basis zone near $61,500 derived from Binance user deposit addresses. A monthly close above the 50-month SMA would strengthen the bottom case.
The next test lies at $67,000, the realized price of CryptoQuant's newer-whale cohort. That level represents a cost-basis barrier; a sustained move above it would confirm the recovery, while a rejection could put recently reclaimed supports back in play. Moreover, heavy leveraged long positioning keeps the risk of another liquidation cascade alive. Analyst Joao Wedson warns that a break below the $57,750–$57,900 floor could trigger forced selling from overleveraged longs, opening a path toward miner and long-term holder cost bases in the $40K–$51K range.
Santiment's report of 2.27 million newly created wallets—the strongest network growth in a year—has also drawn attention. Much of the spike stems from the Coldcard security incident, which prompted users to move Bitcoin into fresh wallets. That activity inflates network metrics without necessarily representing new capital inflows, so its significance for demand remains questionable.
With conflicting forecasts and key technical levels under scrutiny, investors are reminded that crypto markets remain highly volatile. The debate over Bitcoin's true floor underscores the importance of weighing both bullish adoption narratives and the lingering risks posed by leverage and macro headwinds.
