Several prominent crypto analysts are pointing to a cluster of long-term technical indicators that suggest Bitcoin may have carved out a cyclical bottom. The signals, highlighted by Ali Martinez, Michaël van de Poppe, and Merlijn The Trader, converge on the idea that the recent sell-off could be exhausting itself.
Ali Martinez identified three specific signals aligning on the higher timeframes. First, a TD Sequential buy signal has printed on Bitcoin’s monthly chart — a rare occurrence that last appeared at the 2022 market bottom. Second, Bitcoin is trading near its 50-month simple moving average, a level that has acted as support during every major bear-market low since 2014. Third, the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) has dropped to -71, a deeply oversold reading that previously coincided with BTC’s local bottom around $57,000 in June. Martinez argued that the confluence of these three metrics creates a historically strong case for a macro base.
Michaël van de Poppe echoed this view from a macro perspective, noting that the decline toward $60,000 resembles previous bull-market corrections that wiped out leveraged positions before the uptrend resumed. Merlijn The Trader added that Bitcoin has completed a breakdown-and-reclaim pattern on the quarterly chart, a structure he says mirrored the summers of 2023 and 2024, both of which preceded parabolic fourth-quarter rallies.
However, the same analysis warns that markets often inflict maximum pain when sentiment becomes too one-sided. Bitcoin’s history shows significant rallies emerging from shock events — such as the COVID-19 crash or the FTX collapse — while corrections have often hit when optimism is at its peak. The convergence of bullish calls, while based on solid technical evidence, may itself be a contrarian signal.
