President Trump’s recent framing of Bitcoin as a matter of national security against China has revived attention on Standard Chartered’s ambitious long-term forecast, while Google’s Gemini AI adds a separate supply-driven price surge scenario for the coming months.
At a July 6 White House event, Trump stressed the strategic importance of digital assets, saying “If we don’t have it, China’s going to have it.” This geopolitical narrative aligns with the institutional thesis of Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick, who first predicted in early 2025 that Bitcoin would hit $500,000 before Trump’s term ended. Although the 2025 target of $200,000 was missed – with Bitcoin’s all-time high peaking at $126,198 in October – the bank has revised its timeline. In a December 2025 note, the $500,000 milestone was pushed to 2030, while the 2026 year-end target was lowered to $100,000. Kendrick maintains that sovereign wealth funds and state pension funds will drive the next wave of institutional adoption, with ETF inflows and a favorable policy environment providing structural support.
Currently, Bitcoin trades near $64,000–$65,000, consolidating in a range with resistance at $68,000 and support around $62,000. A separate analysis from Google Gemini AI takes a supply-side view, arguing that the compounding effects of the fourth halving are underpricing a shock. Its model forecasts a climb to $150,000–$180,000 by the end of 2026, fueled by shrinking issuance, accelerating ETF inflows, corporate treasury accumulation, and global monetary easing. The AI sees downside limited to $48,000–$52,000 in a scenario of prolonged high rates or a recession, but frames any pullback as temporary.
Both predictions underscore a broader expectation of structural demand outpacing new supply. Whether driven by geopolitical positioning or halving math, the aggressive targets highlight a market that many believe has yet to price in the next wave of adoption, even as short-term charts show indecision.
