Ethereum’s on-chain data is flashing a signal that has historically preceded major market bottoms. According to Julio Moreno, an on-chain analyst at CryptoQuant, ETH’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) on Binance has fallen to -0.35, a level previously observed during key capitulation events in 2019, 2020, 2022, and the 2025 correction.
NUPL measures the aggregate unrealized profit or loss of all held assets, calculated as the difference between the current market value and the price at which the coins were last moved, divided by the market cap. A negative NUPL indicates that, on average, holders are sitting on losses. The -0.35 reading specifically applies to ETH held on Binance, meaning those holdings are carrying net unrealized losses of approximately 35% relative to their market value. Such deep negative readings have historically marked periods of intense fear and capitulation, often aligning with cyclical bottoms.
While the metric is not a precise timing tool, it provides insight into market sentiment and the potential for a supply squeeze. When NUPL reaches extreme negative territory, many investors are unwilling to sell at a loss, leading to decreased exchange supply and conditions conducive to price stabilization or a reversal. However, the current macroeconomic environment and regulatory landscape differ from prior cycles, and the Binance-focused NUPL may not fully represent the entire market.
Traders are watching whether Ethereum can defend this level as it struggles to reclaim $2,400 and hovers below $1,800. The absence of significant trading volume underscores cautious sentiment. A sustained hold above the -0.35 threshold could set the stage for a bullish reversal, while a breach might trigger further declines. As always, on-chain signals like NUPL should be combined with other indicators and fundamental analysis.
